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The Beef Cow Replacement Decision

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  • Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr.
  • Short, Sara D.

Abstract

This analysis examines effects of several common assumptions on net present values (NPVs) of beef cows. While effects on NPVs vary over a price cycle or successive price cycles, several generalities manifest themselves. A cow is not likely to recover the lost revenue from not having just one calf. Incorporating genetic improvement into the herd increases the probability of an older cow being culled. Variable net replacement/culling rates make sense in the context of cattle inventory and price cycles because of the effects cyclical series of prices have on NPV.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia in its journal Journal of Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:14695

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 301 Conner Hall, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7509
Web page: http://www.agecon.uga.edu/~jab/
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Related research

Keywords: asset replacement; cattle cycle; cull; net present value; Livestock Production/Industries;

References

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  1. Sherwin Rosen & Kevin M. Murphy & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1993. "Cattle Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
  3. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
  4. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-26, October.
  5. Bentley, Ernest & Shumway, C. Richard, 1981. "Adaptive Planning Over The Cattle Price Cycle," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(01), July.
  6. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  7. Blake, Martin J. & Gray, James R., 1981. "A Method For Determining Ranch Profit Probabilities When Livestock Yields Are Normally Distributed," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(01), July.
  8. Bentley, Ernest & Waters, James R. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1976. "Determining Optimal Replacement Age Of Beef Cows In The Presence Of Stochastic Elements," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(02), December.
  9. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
  10. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
  11. John M. Marsh, 1999. "The Effects of Breeding Stock Productivity on the U.S. Beef Cattle Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 335-346.
  12. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series archive-25, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  13. Melton, Bryan E., 1980. "Economics Of Beef Cow Culling And Replacement Decisions Under Genetic Progress," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December.
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Cited by:
  1. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
  2. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125218, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "The comparison of investment behaviors of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134770, Agricultural Economics Society.
  4. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Experimental examination of land investment decisions with volatile returns A comparison between Kazakhstani and German farmers," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122454, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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