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Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States

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Author Info
Holt, Matthew T.
Moschini, Giancarlo

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Abstract

The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative risk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30737
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (1992)
Issue (Month): 01 (July)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30737

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Related research
Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;

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  1. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2). [Downloadable!]
  2. Holt, Matthew T., 1994. "Price-Band Stabilization Programs And Risk: An Application To The U.S. Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeffrey LaFrance & Rulon Pope & Richard Just, 2008. "Agricultural Arbitrage and Risk Preferences," Working Papers 2009-01, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. [Downloadable!]
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