IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/ciredw/hal-03252026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Input use and output price risks: the case of maize in Burkina Faso
[Utilisation d'intrants et risques de prix : le cas du maïs au Burkina Faso]

Author

Listed:
  • Tristan Le Cotty

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • Elodie Maître d'Hôtel

    (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • Moctar Ndiaye

    (UG - Université de Guyane)

  • Sophie S. Thoyer

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

Abstract

We investigate whether the fluctuations of agricultural output prices may explain the low level of input use in Sub-Saharan Africa. We combine data on local maize prices and data on farmers' fertilizer use over the 2009-2011 period in Burkina-Faso to estimate a panel-tobit model of fertilizer use. We separate the predictable and unpredictable components of maize price fluctuations and find that fertilizer use decreases when maize price fluctuations increase, and more specifically when unpredictable price fluctuations increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Moctar Ndiaye & Sophie S. Thoyer, 2021. "Input use and output price risks: the case of maize in Burkina Faso [Utilisation d'intrants et risques de prix : le cas du maïs au Burkina Faso]," CIRED Working Papers hal-03252026, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03252026
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03252026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03252026/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esther Duflo & Michael Kremer & Jonathan Robinson, 2011. "Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2350-2390, October.
    2. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    3. Gershon Feder & Roger Slade, 1984. "The Acquisition of Information and the Adoption of New Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(3), pages 312-320.
    4. Batra, Raveendra N & Ullah, Aman, 1974. "Competitive Firm and the Theory of Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 537-548, May/June.
    5. Dehn,Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
    6. Joyotee Smith & Gloria Umali, 1985. "Production Risk and Optimal Fertilizer Rates: A Random Coefficient Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 654-659.
    7. Bekele A. Shiferaw & Tewodros A. Kebede & Liang You, 2008. "Technology adoption under seed access constraints and the economic impacts of improved pigeonpea varieties in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 309-323, November.
    8. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim von Braun, 2016. "Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 172-190.
    9. Andrew D. Foster & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2010. "Microeconomics of Technology Adoption," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 395-424, September.
    10. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-298, January.
    11. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Stavropoulos, Konstantinos S., 2009. "Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, July.
    13. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    14. Richard E. Just & Rulon D. Pope, 1979. "Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 276-284.
    15. Alex Winter‐Nelson & Anna Temu, 2005. "Impacts of prices and transactions costs on input usage in a liberalizing economy: evidence from Tanzanian coffee growers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 243-253, November.
    16. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    17. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian Hubert & Etoundi, Sabine Mireille Ntsama & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2014. "Are Remittances and Foreign Aid a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-98.
    18. Michael Morris & Valerie A. Kelly & Ron J. Kopicki & Derek Byerlee, 2007. "Fertilizer Use in African Agriculture : Lessons Learned and Good Practice Guidelines," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6650, December.
    19. Minot, Nicholas & Kherallah, Mylène & Berry, Philippe, 2000. "Fertilizer market reform and the determinants of fertilizer use in Benin and Malawi," MTID discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Andre Croppenstesdt and Mulat Demeke, 1996. "Determinants of adoption and levels of demand for fertiliser for cereal growing farmers in Ethiopia," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1996-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Arega, D.A. & Manyong, Victor M. & Omanya, G. & Mignouna, H.D. & Bokanga, M. & Odhiambo, George D., 2008. "Smallholder marketed surplus and input use under transactions costs: maize supply and fertilizer demand in Kenya," 2007 Second International Conference, August 20-22, 2007, Accra, Ghana 52074, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    22. Julie Subervie, 2008. "The Variable Response of Agricultural Supply to World Price Instability in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 72-92, February.
    23. repec:fth:oxesaf:96-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. André Croppenstedt & Mulat Demeke, 1996. "Determinants of adoption and levels of demand for fertilizer for cereal growing farmers in Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 1996-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    25. Estelle Koussoubé & Céline Nauges, 2017. "Returns to fertiliser use: Does it pay enough? Some new evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 183-210.
    26. Tahirou Abdoulaye & John H. Sanders, 2005. "Stages and determinants of fertilizer use in semiarid African agriculture: the Niger experience," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 167-179, March.
    27. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    28. Bardhan, Pranab K, 1973. "Size, Productivity, and Returns to Scale: An Analysis of Farm-Level Data in Indian Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1370-1386, Nov.-Dec..
    29. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.
    30. Hartman, Richard, 1976. "Factor Demand with Output Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 675-681, September.
    31. T Le Cotty & E Maitre d'Hotel & M Ndiaye, 2017. "Transport Costs and Food Price Volatility in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(5), pages 625-654.
    32. Murat Isik, 2002. "Resource Management under Production and Output Price Uncertainty: Implications for Environmental Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 557-571.
    33. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    34. Ephraim Nkonya & Ted Schroeder & David Norman, 1997. "Factors Affecting Adoption Of Improved Maize Seed And Fertiliser In Northern Tanzania," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 1-12, January.
    35. Anthony N Rezitis & Konstantinos S Stavropoulos, 2009. "Modeling sheep supply response under asymmetric price volatility and cap reforms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 512-522.
    36. Kremer, Michael & Duflo, Esther & Robinson, Jonathan, 2009. "Nudging Farmers to Utilize Fertilizer: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya," CEPR Discussion Papers 7402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Barrett,Christopher B. & Sheahan,Megan Britney & Barrett,Christopher B. & Sheahan,Megan Britney, 2014. "Understanding the agricultural input landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa : recent plot, household, and community-level evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7014, The World Bank.
    38. Carter, Michael R, 1984. "Identification of the Inverse Relationship between Farm Size and Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of Peasant Agricultural Production," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, March.
    39. Alene, Arega D. & Manyong, V.M. & Omanya, G. & Mignouna, H.D. & Bokanga, M. & Odhiambo, G., 2008. "Smallholder market participation under transactions costs: Maize supply and fertilizer demand in Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 318-328, August.
    40. T Le Cotty & M Maitre d'Hotel & Mamadou Ndiaye, 2017. "Transport Costs and Food Price Volatility in Africa," Post-Print hal-01662661, HAL.
    41. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    42. T Le Cotty & M Maitre d'Hotel & Mamadou Ndiaye, 2017. "Transport Costs and Food Price Volatility in Africa," Post-Print hal-01837871, HAL.
    43. Feder, Gershon, 1985. "The relation between farm size and farm productivity : The role of family labor, supervision and credit constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 297-313, August.
    44. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Moctar Ndiaye & Sophie Thoyer, 2016. "Output price risk and fertilizer use decisions in Burkina Faso," Post-Print hal-01419764, HAL.
    2. Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, 2017. "Is fertiliser use inconsistent with expected profit maximization in sub-Saharan Africa? “Evidence from Nigeria”," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 22-44, February.
    3. Xu, Zhiying & Jayne, Thomas S. & Govereh, Jones, 2006. "Input Subsidy Programs and Commercial Market Development: Modeling Fertilizer Use Decisions in a Two-Channel Marketing System," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21270, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Larson, Donald F. & Gurara, Daniel Zerfu, 2013. "A conceptual model of incomplete markets and the consequences for technology adoption policies in Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6681, The World Bank.
    5. Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d’Hôtel & Raphael Soubeyran & Julie Subervie, 2018. "Linking Risk Aversion, Time Preference and Fertiliser Use in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1991-2006, November.
    6. Larson,Donald F. & Muraoka,Rie & Otsuka,Keijiro, 2016. "On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7710, The World Bank.
    7. Hurley, Terrance M., 2010. "A review of agricultural production risk in the developing world," Working Papers 188476, HarvestChoice.
    8. Lambrecht, Isabel & Vanlauwe, Bernard & Merckx, Roel & Maertens, Miet, 2014. "Understanding the Process of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Mineral Fertilizer in Eastern DR Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 132-146.
    9. Kopper, Sarah A., 2018. "Agricultural labor markets and fertilizer demand: Intensification is not a single factor problem for non-separable households," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Sheahan, Megan & Black, Roy & Jayne, T.S., 2013. "Are Kenyan farmers under-utilizing fertilizer? Implications for input intensification strategies and research," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 39-52.
    11. Megan Sheahan & Joshua Ariga & T. S. Jayne, 2016. "Modeling the Effects of Input Market Reforms on Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: A Case Study from Kenya," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 420-447, June.
    12. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00659098, HAL.
    13. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00659100, HAL.
    14. Melkani, Aakanksha & Mason, Nicole & Mather, David & Chisanga, Brian & Jayne, Thom, 2021. "Smallholder Market Participation and Choice of Marketing Channel in the Presence of Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Zambian Maize Markets," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315273, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    16. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00659100, HAL.
    17. Goundan, Anatole & Faye, Amy & Henning, Christian H. C. A. & Collins-Sowah, Peron A., 2020. "Investing in risky inputs in Senegal: Implications for farm profit and food production," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2020-07, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    18. Mukasa, Adamon N., 2018. "Technology adoption and risk exposure among smallholder farmers: Panel data evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 299-309.
    19. Villegas, Laura & Smith, Vincent H. & Atwood, Joe & Belasco, Eric, 2016. "Does Participation In Public Works Programs Encourage Fertilizer Use In Rural Ethiopia?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Sassi, Maria, 2015. "The welfare cost of maize price volatility in Malawi," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertilizer use; price risk; maize; intensification; Sub-Saharan Africa; utilisation d’intrants; risques de prix; maïs; Afrique Sub Saharienne;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03252026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.