IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/198611010800001206.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Orazem, Peter
  • Miranowski, John A

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical strategy for testing competing hypotheses of expectation regimes when direct measures of expectations are unavailable. The procedure takes as given an assumed structural relationship between expected values of exogenous variables and a given decision variable. By imposing different expectation regimes on this model, we obtain an artificial nesting of the hypothesized regimes which allows us to test whether any specification dominates. This methodology is extended to multiple equation applications with any number of hypothesized expectation regimes. The tests are illustrated using a model of the response of county-level farm acreage allocation to expected commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John A, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," ISU General Staff Papers 198611010800001206, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198611010800001206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/37916ff6-dbb3-4532-b9bd-50692de85cb2/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    2. Haile, Mekbib G. & Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2019. "Access to information, price expectations and welfare: The role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 82-92.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    4. Michael Fusillo & Hercules Haralambides, 2020. "Do carrier expectations indicate industry structure in container shipping? An econometric analysis," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    6. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Krishna Paudel & Christopher McIntosh, 2005. "Numeraire choice in agricultural supply analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1209-1214.
    8. Richard G. Newell & Kerry L. Papps & James N. Sanchirico, 2007. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 259-272.
    9. Sanchirico, James & Newell, Richard & Papps, Kerry, 2005. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets for Fishing Quotas," RFF Working Paper Series dp-05-46, Resources for the Future.
    10. Newell, Richard G. & Sanchirico, James N. & Kerr, Suzi, 2005. "Fishing quota markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 437-462, May.
    11. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    13. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Christopher N. Boyer & Eunchun Park & Seong D. Yun, 2023. "Corn and soybean prevented planting acres response to weather," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 970-983, June.
    15. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    16. Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, 2007. "Composite price expectations: An empirical analysis for the Spanish horticultural sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 57-83.
    17. Pei Xu & Todd Lone & Naydith Torres, 2023. "Market Integration and Price Discovery in California’s Almond Marketing: A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) Approach," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(9), pages 1-43, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198611010800001206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.