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Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages

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  • Shideed, Kamil H.
  • White, Fred C.
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    Abstract

    The consequences of frequently used price expectation models are analyzed by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn and soybean acreages to six alternative formulations. The trade-off between bias and variance associated with these forecasts is investigated. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysis.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32351
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Western Journal of Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 02 (December)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32351

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    Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries;

    References

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-09, November.
    3. Shumway, C. Richard & Chang, A. Anne, 1980. "Supply Response Of Texas Field Crops: An Evaluation Of The Cet Linear Supply Model," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December.
    4. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
    5. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
    6. Valentine, T J, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(142&143), pages 390-404, June-Sept.
    7. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01), July.
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    Cited by:
    1. David Ubilava, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean‐to‐Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 29-41, 01.
    2. Mcintosh, Christopher & Shumway, C. Richard, 1994. "Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(1), January.
    3. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
    5. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    6. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Womack, Abner W., 1992. "Regional Acreage Response For U.S. Corn And Wheat: The Effects Of Government Programs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.

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