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The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors

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  • Christoph Engel

    ()
    (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)

  • Hanjo Hamann

    ()
    (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)

Abstract

The market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: in the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is significantly negatively correlated with the number of market entries 8 years ago. This is quite precisely the time young scholars on average take to prepare for the market. To get this estimate, we detrend the data, and we control for the size of student cohorts when these candidates enter university. This control variable mediates the effect of birth cohorts when candidates are born, which themselves exhibit negative autocorrelation, with a lag of some 20 years. Using our statistical model, we make out of sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods in its series Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods with number 2012_08.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2012_08

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Keywords: market for law professors; hog-cycle; time series; out of sample prediction;

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  1. Hayes, Dermot J. & Schmitz, Andrew, 1987. "Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response," Staff General Research Papers 597, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Cobwebs, Rational Expectations and Futures Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 127-34, February.
  3. Rosemarie Nagel & Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Albert Satorra & José García Montalvo, 1999. "One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments," Economics Working Papers 438, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Dale O. Stahl & Paul W. Wilson, 2010. "On Players' Models of Other Players: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Levine's Working Paper Archive 542, David K. Levine.
  5. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
  6. Shonkwiler, John Scott & Spreen, Thomas H., 1986. "Statistical Significance And Stability Of The Hog Cycle," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Cobwebs on the law professor market
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-06-12 14:56:00

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