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Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach

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  • Matthew T. Holt
  • Lee A. Craig

Abstract

The linearity of the U.S. hog—corn cycle has been questioned by Chavas and Holt (1991) . Even so, attempts have not been made to model the potential nonlinear dynamics in the hog—corn cycle by using regime-switching models. One popular alternative is Teräsvirta's smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, which assumes regime switching is endogenous and potentially smooth. In this article, we examine monthly data for the U.S. hog—corn cycle, 1910–2004. A member of the STAR family, the time-varying STAR, is fitted to the data and its properties examined. We find evidence of nonlinearity, regime-dependent behavior, and time-varying parameter change. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00849.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 215-233

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:88:y:2006:i:1:p:215-233

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Cited by:
  1. Xu, Wan & Khachatryan, Hayk, 2013. "The Impact of Integrated Pest Management Practices on U.S. National Nursery Industry Annul Sales Revenue: An Application of Smooth Transition Spatial Autoregressive Models," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142961, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  2. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  3. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  4. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  5. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi-US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
  6. David Ubilava, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean‐to‐Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 29-41, 01.
  7. Shu-Ling Chen & John D. Jackson & Hyeongwoo Kim & Pramesti Resiandini, 2013. "What Drives Commodity Prices?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  8. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
  9. Hamm, Sandra J. & Goodwin, Harold L., Jr. & McKenzie, Andrew M., 2008. "A Comparative Assessment of the Broiler:Corn Ratio and Its Impact on Broiler Processors' Profitability," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6665, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  10. Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Holt, Matthew T., 2006. "Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21405, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2011. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114532, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. James Rude & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2009. "Biases in Calculating Dumping Margins: The Case of Cyclical Products," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 122-142.
  13. Craig, Lee & Holt, Matthew T., 2012. "The Role of Mechanical Refrigeration in Spatial and Temporal Price Dynamics for Regional U.S. Egg Markets, 1880–1911," MPRA Paper 39554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Sanders, Daniel J. & Baker, Timothy G., 2012. "Hedgers’ Participation in Futures Markets Under Varying Price Regimes," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124872, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  15. David Ubilava & Matt Holt, 2013. "El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, 04.

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