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Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response

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Author Info

  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Schmitz, Andrew

Abstract

The cycle in prices and output is not a permanent fixture of the pork industry. Exogenous shocks occasionally give rise to predictable cycles in pork prices, but these are eventually eliminated in a manner that is consistent with the existence of countercyclical producers. It normally takes several revolutions of the cycle before a sufficient number of countercyclical producers notice that a cycle has begun and are able to alter their production patterns sufficiently to eliminate it. Consequently, the more compelling the evidence is in favor of a cycle the less likely it is to continue.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 597.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1987
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Publication status: Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1987, vol. 69 no. 4, pp. 762-770
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:597

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Cited by:
  1. SaangJoon Baak, 1999. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Market Dynamics, and Social Welfare," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 222, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. SaangJoon Baak, 2000. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Volatility and Welfare," Working Papers EMS_2000_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  3. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
  4. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Park, Myung D., 2009. "Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49278, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
  6. Luis Francisco Rosales & Tatyana Krivobokova, 2012. "Instant Trend-Seasonal Decomposition of Time Series with Splines," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 131, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  7. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  8. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2011. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114532, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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