Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy
AbstractThis paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued to be used in meteorological forecasts, it is hardly mentioned in standard academic textbooks on economic forecasting. Some of the main issues involved are illustrated in the context of a two-state, two-action decision problem as well as in a more general setting. Relationships between statistical and economic methods of forecast evaluation are discussed and useful links between Kuipers score, used as a measure of forecast accuracy in the meteorology literature, and the market timing tests used in finance, are established. An empirical application to the problem of stock market predictability is also provided, and the conditions under which such predictability could be exploited in the presence of transaction costs are discussed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9910.
Date of creation: May 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm
Decision theory; Forecast evaluation; Probabilistsic forecasts; Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy; Stock market predictability;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2000-01-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2000-01-24 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996.
"Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages _059, University of Pennsylvania.
- West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993.
"A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992. "A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John Y. Campbell, 1988.
"Stock Returns and the Term Structure,"
NBER Working Papers
1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, December.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992.
"A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996.
"Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying,"
NBER Working Papers
5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption And Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495, May.
- Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," Scholarly Articles 3163266, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1835, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Clare, A D & Thomas, S H & Wickens, M R, 1994. "Is the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio Useful for Predicting UK Stock Returns?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 303-15, March.
- Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
- Granger, Clive W. J., 1992. "Forecasting stock market prices: Lessons for forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-13, June.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1992. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 85-102, Suppl..
- Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-60, Sept.-Oct.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.