Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters
AbstractSince 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a" complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of" those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997). The analysis" reveals several interesting features of the density forecasts in relation to realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation" shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of" either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced uncertainty. The" results suggest several promising directions for future research.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 98-15.
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
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Postal: New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics, 44 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0860
Fax: (212) 995-4218
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/economics/
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Other versions of this item:
- Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
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