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Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Benchimol

    (Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel)

  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

  • Yossi Saadon

    (Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel)

Abstract

Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi & Yossi Saadon, 2020. "Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    • Handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:202006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Curti, Filippo & Kazinnik, Sophia, 2023. "Central bank communication and website characteristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1216-1241.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expert forecast; behavioral economics; survival analysis; panel estimation; global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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