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Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

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Author Info

  • Fernanda Nechio

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Carlos Carvalho

    (Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio))

Abstract

We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about the future path of prices, interest rates, and unemployment to investigate whether U.S. households are aware of the so-called Taylor (1993) rule. For comparison, we perform the same analysis using questions from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our findings support the view that some households form their expectations about the future path of interest rates, inflation, and unemployment in a way that is consistent with Taylor-type rules. The extent to which this happens, however, does not appear to be uniform across income and education levels. In particular, we find evidence that the relationship between unemployment and interest rates is not properly understood by households in the lowest income quartile, and by those with no high school diploma. We also find evidence that the perceived effect of unemployment on interest rates is asymmetric, being only relevant for interest-rate decreases. Finally, we argue that the relationships that we uncover can be given a causal interpretation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 426.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:426

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References

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  1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  2. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Hervé Le Bihan & Philippe Andrade, 2010. "Inattentive Professional Forecasters," 2010 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-71, July.
  6. Daniel Tortorice, 2010. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 05, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Mar 2011.
  7. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the United States," CeRP Working Papers 107, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  9. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  10. Fabia A. de Carvalho & André Minella, 2009. "Market Forecasts in Brazil: performance and determinants," Working Papers Series 185, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Do people know what the Taylor Rule is?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-03-30 14:01:00
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Cited by:
  1. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," CAMA Working Papers 2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar, 2014. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201401, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.

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  1. Economic Logic blog

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