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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

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  • Jordi Gal�
  • Frank Smets
  • Rafael Wouters

Abstract

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and labor supply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) in their criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a "correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated model can be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Volume (Year): 26 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 329 - 360

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/663994

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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Business cycle accounting," Working Papers 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
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  6. De Walque, Gregory & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R. & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "Sequential Bargaining in a New-Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment and Staggered Wage Negotiation," IZA Discussion Papers 4059, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 8850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
  11. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Trigari, Antonella, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0304, European Central Bank.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
  14. Carlos Thomas, 2006. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19782, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  16. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment Fluctuations With Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," NBER Working Papers 12498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Luca Sala & Ulf Soderstrom & Antonella Trigari, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," Working Papers 365, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
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  21. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
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  25. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2008. "Sequential bargaining in a new-Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage negotiation," BCL working papers 33, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
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