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An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

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  • Casares, Miguel
  • Moreno, Antonio
  • Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

Abstract

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II in its series DFAEII Working Papers with number 2012-07.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:8761

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Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Keywords: sticky wages; unemployment; business cycles; New-Keynesian models.;

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References

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  1. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
  2. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 106, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1202, European Central Bank.
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  7. Walsh, Carl E., 2003. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6tg550dv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  11. Miguel Casares & Antonio Moreno & Jesús Vázquez, 2012. "Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 395-422, September.
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  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Champagne, Julien & Kurmann, André, 2013. "The great increase in relative wage volatility in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 166-183.
  24. Miguel Casares, 2007. "Firm-Specific or Household-Specific Sticky Wages in the New Keynesian Model?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 181-240, December.
  25. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9325, CEPREMAP.
  26. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
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Cited by:
  1. He Chen & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2013. "Statistical Mechanics of Labor Markets," Papers 1309.5156, arXiv.org.
  2. He Chen & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2013. "Dynamics of probabilistic labor markets: statistical physics perspective," Papers 1309.5158, arXiv.org.

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