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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

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  • Galí, Jordi
  • Smets, Frank
  • Wouters, Rafael

Abstract

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and labor supply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) in their criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a "correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated model can be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8401.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8401

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Keywords: Nominal rigidities; output gap; Phillips curve; unemployment fluctuations; wage markup shocks;

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References

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  1. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
  2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," NBER Working Papers 17071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," CEPR Discussion Papers 8005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, Jose David, 2002. "Markups, Gaps and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "Labour Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuations with staggered Nash wage bargaining," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Carlos Thomas, 2006. "Search and Matching Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0743, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  13. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2008. "Sequential bargaining in a new-Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage negotiation," BCL working papers 33, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
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  19. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Sequential bargaining in a new-Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered ware negotiation," Working Paper Series 1007, European Central Bank.
  20. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
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  22. Antonella Trigari, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 304, European Central Bank.
  23. Zanetti, Francesco, 2007. "A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2413-2437, July.
  24. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
  25. Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
  26. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Miguel Casares & Antonio Moreno & Jesús Vázquez, 2012. "An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor," Faculty Working Papers 01/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  3. Benjamin Born & Alexandra Peter & Johannes Pfeifer, 2011. "Fiscal News and Macroeconomic Volatility," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse08_2011, University of Bonn, Germany.
  4. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 7700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Bertrand Gruss & Jose L. Torres, 2012. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 12/38, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Regassa Senbeta S., 2011. "How applicable are the New Keynesian DSGE models to a typical Low-Income Economy?," Working Papers 2011016, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  7. Francisco J. Buera & Benjamin Moll, 2012. "Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch," NBER Working Papers 17775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Massimiliano Marcellino & Yuliya Rychalovska, 2012. "An estimated DSGE model of a Small Open Economy within the Monetary Union: Forecasting and Structural Analysis," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/34, European University Institute.
  9. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral," MPRA Paper 42921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2012.
  10. Jordi Galí, 2010. "The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve," Working Papers 474, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  11. Malikane, Christopher, 2013. "A New Keynesian Triangle Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 43548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Senbeta, Sisay R., 2013. "Informality and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE Model with Dual Labour Markets," Working Papers 2013002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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