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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

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Author Info

  • Jordi Galí
  • Frank Smets
  • Rafael Wouters

Abstract

We develop a reformulated version of the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework that embeds the theory of unemployment proposed in Gal (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and labor supply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) in their criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a "correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated model can be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

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File URL: http://research.barcelonagse.eu/tmp/working_papers/541.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 541.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:541

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Related research

Keywords: nominal rigidities; unemployment fluctuations; Phillips curve; wage markups shocks; output gap;

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References

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "Labour Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," Working Paper Series 246, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
  4. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Carlos Thomas, 2006. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19782, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Gertler, Mark & Trigari, Antonella, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "DSGE models for monetary policy analysis," CQER Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. James R. Spletzer & Katharine G. Abraham & Jay C. Stewart, 1999. "Why Do Different Wage Series Tell Different Stories?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 34-39, May.
  10. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Sequential bargaining in a New Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage negotiation," Working Paper Research 157, National Bank of Belgium.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, 05.
  12. Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
  13. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, Jose David, 2003. "Mark-ups, Gaps and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Zanetti, Francesco, 2007. "A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2413-2437, July.
  15. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, 02.
  16. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabrandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 238, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2012.
  19. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  20. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
  21. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January.
  22. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1013-1025, November.
  23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  24. repec:bcl:bclwop:cahier_etude_33 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 17-34.
  26. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
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