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Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?

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  • Schmidt, Sandra
  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 10-045.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:10045

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Keywords: Central bank communication; Interest rate forecasts; Survey expectations; Panel random coefficient model;

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Cited by:
  1. Agnieszka Janek & Tino Kluge & Rafal Weron & Uwe Wystup, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  2. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Malec, Peter & Schienle, Melanie, 2011. "Capturing the zero: A new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/25, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Szymon Borak & Adam Misiorek & Rafał Weron, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Executive Compensation Regulation and the Dynamics of the Pay-Performance Sensitivity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Maria Grith & Volker Krätschmer, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
  9. Christian Basteck & Tijmen R. Daniëls, 2010. "Every Symmetric 3 x 3 Global Game of Strategic Complementarities Is Noise Independent," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-061, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  10. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2012. "Destructive effects of constructive ambiguity in risky times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1459-1481.
  13. Alexander L. Baranovski, 2010. "Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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