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Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?

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Author Info

  • Sandra Schmidt
  • Dieter Nautz

Abstract

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of in- dividual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's in- terest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2010-036.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-036

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Related research

Keywords: Central bank communication; Interest rate forecasts; Survey expectations; Panel random coefficient model;

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Cited by:
  1. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 25494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Janek, Agnieszka & Kluge, Tino & Weron, Rafal & Wystup, Uwe, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," MPRA Paper 25491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-055, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Executive Compensation Regulation and the Dynamics of the Pay-Performance Sensitivity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Christian Basteck & Tijmen R. Daniëls, 2010. "Every Symmetric 3 x 3 Global Game of Strategic Complementarities Is Noise Independent," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-061, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Alexander L. Baranovski, 2010. "Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  10. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Maria Grith & Volker Krätschmer, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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