Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes
AbstractUsing the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are also slower to update their expectations. In addition, we show that personal income forecasts are positively related to subjective inflation expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctuations in inflation have less effect on income and long-term inflation expectations. Finally, we find evidence that sticky expectations and the heterogeneity of new information received by consumers generate higher mark-ups and inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 536.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-03-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-03-21 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
- Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2006.
"Heterogenous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2009. "Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 20-39, January.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2006. "Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality," Economics Working Papers 945, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2008.
- Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2007. "Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 3239, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
- Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003.
"Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States,"
Working Paper Series
0222, European Central Bank.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, 01.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States," CSEF Working Papers 78, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 Jun 2009.
- Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995.
"Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin Greenwood & Stefan Nagel, 2008.
"Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February.
- Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011.
"Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?,"
509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011.
"Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2013.
"Do People Understand Monetary Policy?,"
Textos para discussÃ£o
618, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2012. "The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment," Staff Reports 543, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.