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Fitting observed inflation expectations

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Stefano Eusepi

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)–type DSGE model are in line with what is observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public’s information on, the central banks’ inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that: 1) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; 2) the variant where agents have imperfect information is strongly rejected by the data; 3) inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation; and 4) none of the models fully captures the dynamics of this variable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 476.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:476

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Keywords: Banks and banking; Central ; Inflation (Finance) ; Inflation targeting ; Bayesian statistical decision theory;

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  1. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, 01.
  2. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  4. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
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  6. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  8. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
  10. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Macroeconomics 0501002, EconWPA.
  11. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, 09.
  12. Melecky, Martin & Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 10545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
  14. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  15. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  16. Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-86, November.
  17. Keen, Benjamin D., 2010. "The Signal Extraction Problem Revisited: A Note On Its Impact On A Model Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 405-426, June.
  18. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2014. "A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output," BIS Working Papers 442, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Curdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2014. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Working Paper Series 2014-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Noisy information and fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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