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Fitting observed inflation expectations

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Stefano Eusepi

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)–type DSGE model are in line with what is observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public’s information on, the central banks’ inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that: 1) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; 2) the variant where agents have imperfect information is strongly rejected by the data; 3) inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation; and 4) none of the models fully captures the dynamics of this variable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 476.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:476

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Related research

Keywords: Banks and banking; Central ; Inflation (Finance) ; Inflation targeting ; Bayesian statistical decision theory;

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References

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  1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2008. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-08-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411 Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  6. Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
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  13. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008. "Are inflation expectations rational?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
  16. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
  17. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
  18. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  20. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, 09.
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