US Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence Regarding Learning, Accuracy and Demographics
AbstractCentral banks have become increasingly aware of the importance of consumer inflation expectations in meeting monetary policy objectives. US consumer year-ahead inflation expectations data is available as measured by the Michigan 'Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior'. Using the detailed demographic information recorded as part of the interview process to accommodate forecast heterogeneity, results suggest the accuracy of forecasts is linked to the demographic characteristics of the respondent. This survey also contains a short-rotating panel dimension, with most respondents being reinterviewed six months after the initial interview. Uniquely, this paper uses these matched interviews to examine whether consumers learn about inflation, improving the accuracy of their forecast from initial to reinterview. Results suggest, having corrected for attrition bias, that being reinterviewed stimulates agents to learn and improve forecast accuracy, the level of improvement being dependent on the demographic characteristic of the interviewee.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 99.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-03-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-03-01 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-03-01 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael F. Bryan & Guhan Venkatu, 2001. "The curiously different inflation perspectives of men and women," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
- Inkmann, J., 2005. "Inverse Probability Weighted Generalised Empirical Likelihood Estimators: Firm Size and R&D Revisited," Discussion Paper 2005-131, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012.
"Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes,"
536, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
- Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2012. "The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment," Staff Reports 543, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Golden, Brian & Monks, Allen, 2009. "Measuring Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 67-84, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.