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Fitting observed inflation expectations

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  • Del Negro, Marco
  • Eusepi, Stefano

Abstract

The paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)-type DSGE model are in line with what observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public's information on, the central banks' inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that (i) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; (ii) the variant where agents have Imperfect Information is strongly rejected by the data; (iii) inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation, and (iv) none of the models fully capture the dynamics of this variable.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 2105-2131

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:2105-2131

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Imperfect Information; Bayesian analysis; DSGE models;

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References

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  1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2008. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Staff Reports 322, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  11. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  12. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
  14. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  15. Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
  16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  17. Keen, Benjamin D., 2010. "The Signal Extraction Problem Revisited: A Note On Its Impact On A Model Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 405-426, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Curdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2014. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Working Paper Series 2014-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2014. "A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output," BIS Working Papers 442, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Noisy information and fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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