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DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve

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  • Frank Schorfheide

Abstract

This paper surveys estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) parameters that have been obtained by fitting fully specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models to U.S. data. We examine various sources of identification in the context of a simple analytical model. DSGE model-based NKPC estimates tend to be fragile and sensitive to the model specification, in particular if marginal costs are treated as an unobserved variable. Estimates of the NKPC slope lie between 0 and 4. If the observations span the labor share, which is in most instances the model-implied measure of marginal costs, then the slope estimates fall into a much narrower range of 0.005 to 0.135. No consensus has emerged with respect to the importance of lagged inflation in the Phillips curve.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Quarterly.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
Pages: 397-433

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2008:i:fall:p:397-433:n:v.94no.4

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2012. "Prince-setting, monetary policy and the contractionary effects of productivity improvements," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0161, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  2. Kim, Insu, 2009. "Dual Wage Rigidities: Theory and Some Evidence," MPRA Paper 21494, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
  3. Cagliarini, Adam & Robinson, Tim & Tran, Allen, 2011. "Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120, March.
  4. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  5. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Autoregression-Based Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 29801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Andreas Orland & Michael W.M. Roos, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Myopic Agents," Ruhr Economic Papers 0281, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  7. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2010. "Contractionary Effects of Supply Shocks: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation," Working Papers 131, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2008. "Policy implications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 435-465.
  9. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
  11. Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Working Papers 11-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Curdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2014. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Working Paper Series 2014-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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