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Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy

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Author Info
Melecky, Martin
Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego
Soderstrom, Ulf

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Abstract

We quantify the effects of monetary policy transparency and credibility on macroeconomic volatility in an estimated model of the euro area economy. In our model, private agents are unable to distinguish between temporary shocks to the central bank’s monetary policy rule and persistent shifts in the inflation target, and therefore use optimal filtering techniques to construct estimates of the future monetary policy stance. We find that the macroeconomic benefits of credibly announcing the current level of the time-varying inflation target are reasonably small as long as private agents correctly understand the stochastic processes governing the inflation target and the temporary policy shock. If, on the other hand, private agents overestimate the volatility of the inflation target, the overall gains of announcing the target can be substantial. We also show that the central bank to some extent can help private agents in their learning process by responding more aggressively to deviations of inflation from the target.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10545.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10545

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Related research
Keywords: Credibility; Transparency; Inflation targeting; Imperfect information; Private sector learning.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fève,P. & Materon,J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 243, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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