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Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S

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Author Info
Timothy Cogley
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Thomas J. Sargent

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Abstract

We use Bayesian methods to estimate two models of post WWII U.S. inflation rates with drifting stochastic volatility and drifting coefficients. One model is univariate, the other a multivariate autoregression. We define the inflation gap as the deviation of inflation from a pure random walk component of inflation and use both of our models to study changes over time in the persistence of the inflation gap measured in terms of short- to medium-term predicability. We present evidence that our measure of the inflation-gap persistence increased until Volcker brought mean inflation down in the early 1980s and that it then fell during the chairmanships of Volcker and Greenspan. Stronger evidence for movements in inflation gap persistence emerges from the VAR than from the univariate model. We interpret these changes in terms of a simple dynamic new Keynesian model that allows us to distinguish altered monetary policy rules and altered private sector parameters.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13749.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13749

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," ECARES Working Papers 2009_020, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  3. Grassi, Stefano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Has the Volatility of U.S. Inflation Changed and How?," MPRA Paper 11453, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, . "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Martin Melecky & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 490, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Greco , Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. John M. Roberts, 2007. "Learning, Sticky Inflation, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Kiel Working Papers 1365, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50. [Downloadable!]
  10. Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2007. "Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2007-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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