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On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy

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  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E A

Abstract

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the US economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Both models have the same likelihood function and are therefore observationally equivalent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4101.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4101

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Keywords: identification; indeterminacy;

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References

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  1. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
  2. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  3. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  4. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  5. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Weder, 2005. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," School of Economics Working Papers 2005-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  2. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  4. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
  5. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 0586, European Central Bank.
  6. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Indeterminacy Produces Determinacy," IDEI Working Papers 333, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  9. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  10. Carrillo, Julio & Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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