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On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy

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  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E A

Abstract

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the US economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Both models have the same likelihood function and are therefore observationally equivalent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4101.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4101

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Keywords: identification; indeterminacy;

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References

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  1. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
  2. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
  3. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  4. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  2. Weder, Mark, 2003. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany´s Great Depression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,50, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 586, European Central Bank.
  4. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jagjit Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "Sunspots and Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  6. Carrillo, Julio & Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  7. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  8. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
  10. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Indeterminacy Produces Determinacy," IDEI Working Papers 333, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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