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On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models

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Author Info
Del Negro, Marco
Schorfheide, Frank
Smets, Frank
Wouters, Rafael

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Abstract

The Paper provides new tools for the evaluation of DSGE models, and applies it to a large-scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and wage stickiness and capital accumulation. Specifically, we approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression (VAR), and then systematically relax the implied cross-equation restrictions. Let delta denote the extent to which the restrictions are being relaxed. We document how the in- and out-of-sample fit of the resulting specification (DSGE-VAR) changes as a function of delta. Furthermore, we learn about the precise nature of the misspecification by comparing the DSGE model’s impulse responses to structural shocks with those of the best-fitting DSGE-VAR. We find that the degree of misspecification in large-scale DSGE models is no longer so large to prevent their use in day-to-day policy analysis, yet it is not small enough that it cannot be ignored.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4848.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4848

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian Analysis DSGE models model evaluation vector autoregression

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
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  13. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. DeJong, David N & Ingram, Beth Fisher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
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