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Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?

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  • Ghent, Andra C.

Abstract

I generate priors for a vector autoregression (VAR) from a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, an RBC model with capital-adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky-price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. The response of hours worked to a TFP shock differs sharply across these models. I compare the accuracy of forecasts made from each of the resulting dynamic stochastic general equilibrium vector autoregression (DSGE-VAR) models. Despite having different structural characteristics, the DSGE-VARs are comparable in terms of forecasting performance. As in previous work, DSGE-VARs compare favorably with atheoretical VARs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 864-882

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:864-882

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Model evaluation Priors from DSGE models Economic fluctuations Hours debate Business cycles;

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Cited by:
  1. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
  2. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
  3. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  4. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.

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