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Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down? A Little Evidence From an Agnostic Procedure

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Author Info
Elena Pesavento (Emory University)
Barbara Rossi (Duke University)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to choose between a specification in levels or in first differences. We find that a positive productivity shock has a negative impact effect on hours, as in Francis and Ramey (2001), but the effect is much more short-lived, and disappears after two quarters. The effect becomes positive at business cycle frequencies, as in Christiano et al. (2003), although it is not significant.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0411002.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0411002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 22
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Technology shocks; persistence; impulse response functions; Real Business Cycle Theory;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001. "Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2003. "Testing for unit roots with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 75-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2003. "Optimal Power For Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors with Known Parameters for Nonstationarity," Emory Economics 0303, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Rossi, Barbara & Pesavento, Elena, 2003. "Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons," Working Papers 03-19, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/13, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," NBER Working Papers 12671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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