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Stochastic Technical Progress, Smooth Trends, and Nearly Distinct Business Cycles

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Author Info
Julio J. Rotemberg

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Abstract

This paper studies a model of random technical progress where technology diffuses at realistically slow rates. It fits smooth trends to the sum of GDP series generated by this model and series representing transitory, or cyclical, fluctuations. Detrended GDP is then largely unrelated to technical progress. The detrending method proposed by Rotemberg (1999) reconstructs cyclical variations somewhat more accurately than the HP filter. With sufficiently slow diffusion it is also more accurate than a method based on VARs fitted to hours and GDP growth. Consistent with the model's predictions, permanent shocks initially depress both hours and output in these VARs.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/000282803322655437
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1543-1559
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:5:p:1543-1559

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:4:p:423-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997. "Product Innovation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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  7. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mandfield, Edwin, 1989. "The diffusion of industrial robots in Japan and the United States," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 183-192, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 2000. "Technological Change, the Labor Market and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Jo o, 2000. "Financial Intermediation And Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantitative Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 423-447, December. [Downloadable!]
  13. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lynn, Leonard, 1981. "New Data on the Diffusion of the Basic Oxygen Furnace in the U.S. and Japan," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 123-35, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lindé, Jesper, 2005. "The Effects of Permanent Technology Shocks on Labour Productivity and Hours in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Matheron, J. & Poilly, C., 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," Documents de Travail 148, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri & Rafa Doménech, 2009. "Search, Nash Bargaining and Rule of Thumb Consumers," Working Papers 0901, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech & Antonio Fatás, 2007. "The stabilizing role of government size," Banco de España Working Papers 0710, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2005. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated Sticky Price Model of the US Economy," Documents de Travail 123, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  11. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lone E. Christiansen, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data," IMF Working Papers 08/24, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Firm-Specific Capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
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