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Stochastic Technical Progress, Smooth Trends, and Nearly Distinct Business Cycles

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Author Info
Julio J. Rotemberg

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Abstract

This paper studies a model of random technical progress where technology diffuses at realistically slow rates. It fits smooth trends to the sum of GDP series generated by this model and series representing transitory, or cyclical, fluctuations. Detrended GDP is then largely unrelated to technical progress. The detrending method proposed by Rotemberg (1999) reconstructs cyclical variations somewhat more accurately than the HP filter. With sufficiently slow diffusion it is also more accurate than a method based on VARs fitted to hours and GDP growth. Consistent with the model's predictions, permanent shocks initially depress both hours and output in these VARs.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1543-1559
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:5:p:1543-1559

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 2000. "Technological Change, the Labor Market and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:4:p:423-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997. "Product Innovation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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  11. Lynn, Leonard, 1981. "New Data on the Diffusion of the Basic Oxygen Furnace in the U.S. and Japan," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 123-35, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mandfield, Edwin, 1989. "The diffusion of industrial robots in Japan and the United States," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 183-192, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lindé, Jesper, 2005. "The Effects of Permanent Technology Shocks on Labour Productivity and Hours in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech & Antonio Fatás, 2007. "The stabilizing role of government size," Banco de España Working Papers 0710, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Julien Matheron & Céline Poilly, 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," THEMA Working Papers 2006-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  4. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    Other versions:
  5. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lone E. Christiansen, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data," IMF Working Papers 08/24, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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