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The rise and fall of U.S. inflation persistence

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  • Meredith Beechey
  • Par Osterholm

Abstract

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central-bank optimization predict persistent inflation outcomes. Time variation of the central bank's preference for output stability should be reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autoregressive parameter for monthly U.S. inflation data from 1955 to 2006. The coefficients provide an estimate of the inflation target and the path of inflation persistence. The estimated inflation target over the sample is approximately 2.8 percent and we find that inflation persistence declined substantially during Volcker and Greenspan's tenures to a level significantly less than one and significantly below that of the 1970s and early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2007-26.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-26

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy - United States;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Paper 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Martha Misas A & Juan José Echavarría S & Enrique López E, 2010. "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008296, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  4. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden," Working Paper 114, National Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  6. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  7. Ohlsson, Henry, 2009. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884-2004," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2009:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  8. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
  9. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411 Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Forecasting inflation in an inflation-targeting regime: A role for informative steady-state priors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, April.
  11. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
  12. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2013. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 50109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2013. "Inflation Persistence: Revisited," Working Papers 2013-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  14. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Time-varying inflation persistence in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-535, March.

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