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The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence

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  • Beechey, Meredith

    (Monetary Affairs Division)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output stability is a determinant of inflation persistence. Hence, time variation of that preference should be reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autore- gressive parameter for monthly U.S. inflation data from 1955 to 2006.The coefficients provide an estimate of the inflation target and the path of inflation persistence. The estimated inflation target over the sample is approximately 2.8 percent and we find that inflation persistence declined substantially during Volcker and Greenspan's tenures to a level significantly less than one and significantly below that of the 1970s and early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007:18.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_018

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: Monetary policy; Central bank preferences; Inflation persistence; Time-varying parameters; Kalman filter;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  2. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
  3. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., . "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 623, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars," IMF Working Papers 08/53, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2013. "Inflation Persistence: Revisited," Working Papers 2013-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  7. Ohlsson, Henry, 2009. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884-2004," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2009:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  8. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  9. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden," Working Paper 114, National Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2013. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 50109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Forecasting inflation in an inflation-targeting regime: A role for informative steady-state priors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, April.
  12. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Time-varying inflation persistence in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-535, March.
  13. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Paper 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.

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