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Why are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?

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  • Ellingsen, Tore
  • Söderström, Ulf

Abstract

We use a quantitative model of the US economy to analyse the response of long-term interest rates to monetary policy, and compare the model results with empirical evidence. We find that the model can explain the strong and time-varying yield curve response to monetary policy innovations found in the data. A key ingredient in explaining the yield curve response is central bank private information about the state of the economy or about its own target for inflation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4360.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4360

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Keywords: central bank private information; excess sensitivity; term structure of interest rates; yield curve;

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References

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  1. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
  2. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  3. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Is Bank Supervision Central To Central Banking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 629-653, May.
  4. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  5. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
  7. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  8. Ric Battellino & John Broadbent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9703, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
  10. Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
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