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Money Growth and Interest Rates

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  • Seok-Kyun Hur
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    Abstract

    Our paper explores a transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bond market. Based on the assumption of delayed responses of economic agents to monetary shocks, we derive a system of equations relating the term structure of interest rates with the past history of money growth rates and test the equations with the US data. Our results confirm that the higher ordered moments of money growth rate(converted from the past history of money growth rates) influence the yields of bonds with various maturities in different timing as well as in different magnitudes and monetary policy targeting a certain shape of the term structure of interest rates could be implemented with certain time lags due to path-dependency of interest rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11102.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2005
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    Publication status: published as Ito, Takatoshi and Andrew K. Rose (eds.) Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, vol. 15. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2006.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11102

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cyril Monnet & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Money and interest rates," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-13.
    3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ulf Soderstrom & Tore Ellingsen, 2004. "Why are long rates sensitive to monetary policy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 31, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2004. "A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 107, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest rates and inflation," Working Papers 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Kiseok Hong, 1999. "Fluctuations In Consumer Durables Expenditure And Fixed Investment of Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 59-65.
    12. Scott Hendry & Wai-Ming Ho & Kevin Moran, 2003. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model," Working Papers 03-38, Bank of Canada.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    14. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2003. "Sticky prices and monetary policy shocks," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-9.
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    Cited by:
    1. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.

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