Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle

Contents:

Author Info

  • William T. Gavin
  • Finn E. Kydland
  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

This paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations. We find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains. A tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects. Our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non-indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule. Monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation. Monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control, and with more stable inflation, the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2004-017/
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2004/2004-017.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2004-017.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2004-017

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Business cycles ; Taxation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  2. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  3. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January.
  4. Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Some Indirect Evidence on Effective Capital Gains Tax Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 127-38, April.
  5. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?," Working Papers 2004-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2003. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/41, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Zhang, Guang-Jia, 2000. "Inflation and capital gains taxes in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 195-208, July.
  8. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  9. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
  11. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
  12. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, May.
  14. Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
  15. David Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1991. "Inflation, personal taxes, and real output: a dynamic analysis," Working Paper 9102, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Why Are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 160, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  17. Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, 1983. "Inflation and the Taxation of Capital Income in the Corporate Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 116-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Daniel Feenberg & James Poterba, 2003. "The Alternative Minimum Tax and Effective Marginal Tax Rates," NBER Working Papers 10072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Kydland, Finn E, 1991. "Inflation, Personal Taxes, and Real Output: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 575-79, August.
  20. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  21. Bennett T. McCallum & Marvin S. Goodfriend, 1987. "Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Michael R. Pakko, 2002. "What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 376-407, April.
  23. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  24. Anton Braun, R., 1994. "Tax disturbances and real economic activity in the postwar United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-462, June.
  25. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs of inflation and policy credibility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-50.
  26. J. Bradford DeLong, 1997. "America’s Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 247-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  29. Balcer, Yves & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. " Effects of Capital Gains Taxation on Life-Cycle Investment and Portfolio Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 743-58, July.
  30. Chang, Ly-June, 1995. "Business cycles with distorting taxes and disaggregated capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 985-1009.
  31. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 39-61.
  32. Darrel Cohen & Kevin Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1999. "Inflation and the User Cost of Capital: Does Inflation Still Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 199-234 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  34. James Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 1997-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  35. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2002. "Taxation and the Taylor principle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  37. Robert Dittmar & William Gavin & Finn Kydland, 2002. "Inflation Persistence and Flexible Prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 190, Society for Computational Economics.
  38. Viard, Alan D., 2000. "Dynamic asset pricing effects and incidence of realization-based capital gains taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 465-488, October.
  39. Poterba, James M., 1987. "How burdensome are capital gains taxes?: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 157-172, July.
  40. Alan J. Auerbach, 1988. "Capital Gains Taxation in the United States: Realizations, Revenue, and Rhetoric," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 595-638.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 719-34.
  2. Finn E. Kydland & Fei Mao & William T. Gavin, 2011. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and Energy Price Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 1160, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Alexis Anagnostopoulos & Eva Carceles-Poveda, 2010. "Dividend and Capital Gains Taxation under Incomplete Markets," Department of Economics Working Papers 10-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  4. Panagiotis Chronis & Aspassia Strantzalou, 2008. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction: What is the Role of the Transaction Cost of the Tax System in Stabilisation Policies?," Working Papers 71, Bank of Greece.
  5. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Finn E. Kydland, 2013. "Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks," Working Papers 2013-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2004-017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.