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Inflation Persistence and Flexible Prices

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  • Robert Dittmar
  • William Gavin
  • Finn Kydland

Abstract

If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from trend. This paper shows that a flexible-price general equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using an interest rate target can account for such inflation persistence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 190.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:190

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Keywords: Inflation Persistence; Taylor Rule; Flexible Prices;

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  1. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  3. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin & Frederic S. Mishkin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1997. "The optimum quantity of money: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 687-724.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  8. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1992. "Recursive methods for computing equilibria of business cycle models," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 36, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
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