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What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'

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Michael R. Pakko (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

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Abstract

This paper considers transition dynamics associated with a change in the rate of technological progress, using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic technology growth trends. The model suggests that these dynamics are associated with protracted transition periods, especially when technology growth is capital-embodied. Simulations of the post-WWII U.S. economy show that the model's propagation mechanism is capable of explaining a significant portion of variation in observed growth rates, particularly for investment, capital accumulation, and employment. The simulations suggest that positive shocks to the trend rate of technology growth in the mid-1980s and early 1990s were precursors to the productivity accelerations of the late 1990s. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.2002.0169
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Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 376-407
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:376-407

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1999. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 207-230, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andreas Hornstein, 1999. "Growth accounting with technological revolutions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-2), pages 273-334. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, Summer.
  17. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997. "Product Innovation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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  19. J. Steven Landefeld & Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2001. "Measuring the New Economy," BEA Papers 0009, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  20. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, . "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 129, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hashmat Khan & Marjorie Santos, 2002. "Contribution of ICT Use to Output and Labour-Productivity Growth in Canada," Working Papers 02-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter N. Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2006. "Productivity and U.S. macroeconomic performance: interpreting the past and predicting the future with a two-sector real business cycle model," Working Papers 06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nicholas Oulton, . "Productivity versus welfare: or, GDP versus Weitzman's NDP," Bank of England working papers 163, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland & Michael R. Pakko, 2006. "Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle," Working Papers 2004-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael R. Pakko, 2005. "Changing technology trends, transition dynamics and growth accounting," Working Papers 2000-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Diego Martínez López & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2008. "ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US 1980-2004," Working Papers 08.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 662, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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