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What happens when the technology growth trend changes?: transition dynamics, capital growth and the "new economy"

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

The rapid increase in U.S. economic growth during the late 1990s inspired speculation that an acceleration in the rate of technological progress had given rise to an increase in potential output growth. This paper considers the transition dynamics associated with such a change using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic growth trends. The model suggests that transition dynamics associated with a shift in the technological growth trend can have important implications for macroeconomic growth patterns, particularly when technological change is investment-specific. Simulations of the post-WWII U.S. economy show that the model's internal propagation mechanism is capable of explaining a significant portion of the variation in growth rates over the sample period, particularly for investment, capital accumulation, and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Pakko, 2001. "What happens when the technology growth trend changes?: transition dynamics, capital growth and the "new economy"," Working Papers 2001-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2001-020
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    Cited by:

    1. Gavin, William T. & Kydland, Finn E. & Pakko, Michael R., 2007. "Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1587-1611, September.
    2. Hashmat Khan & Marjorie Santos, 2002. "Contribution of ICT Use to Output and Labour-Productivity Growth in Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-7, Bank of Canada.
    3. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Francesca Marino, 2013. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," SERIES 0046, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Apr 2013.
    5. Manuel A. Hidalgo Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Mª O.Kean Alonso, 2008. "Labor demand and information technologies: evidence for Spain, 1980-2005," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2008/13, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Veliov, Vladimir M., 2006. "Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 143-164, January.
    7. Nicholas Oulton, 2004. "Productivity Versus Welfare; Or GDP Versus Weitzman's NDP," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(3), pages 329-355, September.
    8. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Martínez, Diego & Rodríguez, Jesús & Torres, José L., 2008. "The productivity paradox and the new economy: The Spanish case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1569-1586, December.
    10. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Bakhshi, Hasan & Larsen, Jens, 2005. "ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 648-669, December.
    12. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    13. Pakko Michael R., 2005. "Changing Technology Trends, Transition Dynamics, and Growth Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, December.
    14. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, 2001. "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 129, Bank of England.
    15. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt in the U.S. and Growth Expectations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-25, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Liao, Hailin & Wang, Bin & Li, Baibing & Weyman-Jones, Tom, 2016. "ICT as a general-purpose technology: The productivity of ICT in the United States revisited," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 10-25.
    18. Araújo, Eurilton, 2012. "Investment-specific shocks and real business cycles in emerging economies: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 671-678.
    19. Francesca Marino, 2016. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 63(2), pages 171-193, June.
    20. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    21. Fernando Rio & Antonio Sampayo, 2014. "Obsolescence and productivity," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, December.
    22. Jesús Rodríguez López, 2010. "Growth, fluctuations and technology in the U.S. post-war economy," Working Papers 10.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    23. Martínez, Diego & Rodríguez, Jesús & Torres, José L., 2010. "ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US: 1980-2004," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 121-129, May.
    24. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
    25. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2009. "Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth," Working Papers 2009-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity ; Technology ; Economic conditions - United States;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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