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Changing technology trends, transition dynamics and growth accounting

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Author Info
Michael R. Pakko

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Abstract

The technology growth trends that underlie recent productivity patterns are investigated in a framework that incorporates investment-specific technological progress. Structural-break tests and regime-shifting models reveal the presence of a downward shift in TFP growth in the late 1960s and an upward shift in investment-specific technology growth in the mid-1980s. In both cases, these breaks precede observed changes in labor productivity growth by several years. Simulations of technology growth shocks in a basic neoclassical model show that induced patterns of capital accumulation are consistent with the observed lags between technological advances and changes in productivity growth.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-014.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2005, 5(1), Article 12
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-014

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Keywords: Technology ; Productivity;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael R. Pakko, 2002. "Investment-specific technology growth: concepts and recent estimates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-48. [Downloadable!]
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  4. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Perli, Roberto & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 1998. "Human capital formation and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 67-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 8359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
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  12. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2002. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1986, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-2), pages 273-334. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1995. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9510, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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  19. Ozlu, Elvan, 1996. "Aggregate economic fluctuations in endogenous growth models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 318-345, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2001. "The transition to a new economy after the Second Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 606, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  24. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Collard, Fabrice, 1998. "Spectral and persistence properties of cyclical growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 463-488, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1999. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 207-230, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Kerk Phillips & Jeffrey Wrase, 1999. "Schumpeterian growth and endogenous business cycles," Working Papers 99-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  28. Andreas Hornstein, 1999. "Growth accounting with technological revolutions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
  29. Michael R. Pakko, 2001. "What happens when the technology growth trend changes?: transition dynamics, capital growth and the "new economy"," Working Papers 2001-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2003. "From Individual to Aggregate Labor Supply: A Quantitative Analysis Based on a Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomy," Macroeconomics 0307003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  32. J. Steven Landefeld & Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2001. "Measuring the New Economy," BEA Papers 0009, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  33. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter N. Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2006. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 642, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Monetary policy and natural disasters in a DSGE model: how should the Fed have responded to Hurricane Katrina?," Working Papers 2007-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 662, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Manuel A. Hidalgo Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & José María O´Kean Alonso, 2008. "Labor Demand and Information Technologies: Evidence for Spain, 1980-2005," Working Papers 08.12, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Diego Martínez López & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2008. "ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US 1980-2004," Working Papers 08.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Diego Martínez & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José L. Torres, 2008. "Productivity growth and technological change in Europe and the U.S," Working Papers 2008-10, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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