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Inflation persistence and flexible prices

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Author Info
Robert Dittmar
William T. Gavin
Finn E. Kydland

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Abstract

If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from trend. This paper shows that a flexible-price general equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using an interest rate target can account for such inflation persistence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2001-010.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in International Economic Review, February 2005, 46(1), pp. 245-61
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2001-010

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Econometric models ; Taylor's rule;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  2. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1992. "Recursive methods for computing equilibria of business cycle models," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 36, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  5. Mulligan, Casey B & Sala-I-Martin, Xavier X, 1997. "The Optimum Quantity of Money: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 687-715, November.
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  6. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "A Comparison of Exchange Economies within a Monetary Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Systematic monetary policy and persistence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hammad Qureshi, 2008. "Explosive Roots in Level Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 08-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NUTAHARA Kengo, 2008. "Nominal Rigidities, News-Driven Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Discussion papers 08018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  5. NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Unemployment Insurance," Discussion papers 09014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Elmar Mertens, 2005. "Puzzling Comovements between Output and Interest Rates? Multiple Shocks are the Answer," Working Papers 05.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  9. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  10. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2005. "The monetary instrument matters," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 633-658. [Downloadable!]
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