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Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden

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Author Info
Refet S. Gürkaynak
Andrew T. Levin
Eric T. Swanson

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Abstract

We investigate the extent to which inflation targeting helps anchor long-run inflation expectations by comparing the behavior of daily bond yield data in the United Kingdom and Sweden--both inflation targeters--to that in the United States, a non-inflation-targeter. Using the difference between far-ahead forward rates on nominal and inflation-indexed bonds as a measure of compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk at long horizons, we examine how much, if at all, far-ahead forward inflation compensation moves in response to macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy announcements. In the U.S., we find that forward inflation compensation exhibits highly significant responses to economic news. In the U.K., we find a level of sensitivity similar to that in the U.S. prior to the Bank of England gaining independence in 1997, but a striking absence of such sensitivity since the central bank became independent. In Sweden, we find that forward inflation compensation has been insensitive to economic news over the whole period for which we have data. Our findings support the view that a well-known and credible inflation target helps to anchor the private sector's perceptions of the distribution of long-run inflation outcomes.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-09.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-09

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) Prices Monetary policy

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  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 400, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher W. Crowe, 2007. "Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/289, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Enhancing Fed credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 17. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Swanson, Eric T, 2007. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 6456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 396, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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