Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle
AbstractI compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts. First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession even though the VAR predicts the fall in unemployment. Second, more people expect unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession than expect it to rise when it is rising at the beginning of a recession even though the VAR predicts these changes. Finally, the lag change in unemployment is almost as important as the VAR forecast in predicting the fraction of the population that expects unemployment to rise. Professional forecasters do not make these mistakes. Least squares learning or real time expectations do little to help explain these facts. However, delayed updating of expectations can explain some of these facts and extrapolative expectations explains these facts best. Individuals with higher income or education are only slightly less likely to make these expectational errors and those who makes these errors are 8-10 percent less likely to believe it is a good time to make a major purchase.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School in its series Working Papers with number 05.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision: Mar 2011
Consumer Sentiment; Rational Expectations; Business Fluctuations; Cycles;
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2011-02-05 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
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