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Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty

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  • Richard T. Curtin
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    Abstract

    The formation and accuracy of unemployment expectations are investigated in this paper. Unemployment expectations were found to contain predictive information that was not captured by past trends in unemployment and other economic variables. The predictive content of expectations was based on private information about future unemployment and overall economic prospects. The data indicated a greater consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis than with adaptive, extrapolative, and error-learning models, although households did not optimally use all available information. The data indicate that unemployment expectations are to an important extent derived from more general expectations about the future performance of the economy. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in its journal the Review of Income and Wealth.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 539-554

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:49:y:2003:i:4:p:539-554

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    Cited by:
    1. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
    2. Marcus Klemm, 2012. "Job Security Perceptions and the Saving Behavior of German Households," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0380, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
    5. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Dräger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Buchen, Teresa, 2013. "The News Media and the Expectation Formation of Firms," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80005, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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