Inattentive professional forecasters
AbstractUsing the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. These facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information à la Mankiw–Reis, and noisy information à la Sims. However, building and estimating such an expectation model, we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 60 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Expectations; Imperfect information; Inattention; Forecast errors; Disagreement;
Other versions of this item:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009.
"Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence,"
NBER Working Papers
15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-77, June.
- Olivier Coibion, 2007.
"Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve,"
61, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher Carroll, 2003. "RATS code for Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," QM&RBC Codes 36, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Michael T. Kiley, 2005.
"A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 101-125, 02.
- Michael T. Kiley, 2006. "A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael Kiley, 2005. "A Quantitative Comparison Of Sticky-Price And Sticky-Information Models Of Price Setting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010.
"Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model,"
93, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 920-940, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Strategic Interaction Among Heterogeneous Price-Setters In An Estimated DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 14323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
- Klenow, Peter J. & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007.
"Sticky information and sticky prices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 79-99, September.
- Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008.
"What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?,"
NBER Working Papers
14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116 - 159.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.