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Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts

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Author Info
Harrison Hong
Jeffrey D. Kubik
Amit Solomon
Abstract

Several theories of reputation and herd behavior (e.g., Scharfstein and Stein (1990) and Zweibel (1995)) suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns. Our goal is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts. We find that inexperienced analysts are more likely to be terminated for inaccurate earnings forecasts than are their more experienced counterparts. Controlling for forecast accuracy, they are also more likely to be terminated for bold forecasts that deviate from the consensus. Consistent with these implicit incentives, we find that inexperienced analysts deviate less from consensus forecasts. Additionally, inexperienced analysts are less likely to issue timely forecasts, and they revise their forecasts more frequently. These findings are broadly consistent with existing career concern motivated herding theories.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by The RAND Corporation in its journal RAND Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
Pages: 121-144
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Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:31:y:2000:i:spring:p:121-144

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  1. Palomino, F. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock price reactions to short-lived public information : the case of betting odds," Discussion Paper 16, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Boris Groysberg & Ashish Nanda & M. Julia Prats, 2007. "Does Individual Performance Affect Entrepreneurial Mobility? Empirical Evidence from the Financial Analysis Market," NBER Working Papers 13633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 705-706, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy & Lauren Cohen, 2008. "Sell Side School Ties," NBER Working Papers 13973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-292, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Martinez, Jose Vicente, 2007. "Information Misweighting and Stock Recommendations," SIFR Research Report Series 59, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robin Greenwood & Stefan Nagel, 2008. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Suto, Megumi, 2007. "Does Culture Influence Asset Managers? Views and Behavior?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-367, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  11. Serena Ng & Matt Shum, 2007. "Detecting Information Pooling: Evidence from Earnings Forecasts after Brokerage Mergers," Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1801-1801. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Ming Huang & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2004. "Does Fund Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? The Role of Liquidity and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1276-1302, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ljungqvist, Alexander P & Marston, Felicia & Starks, Laura T & Wei, Kelsey D. & Yan, Hong, 2005. "Conflicts of Interest in Sell-Side Research and the Moderating Role of Institutional Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ljungqvist, Alexander P & Marston, Felicia & Wilhelm Jr, William J, 2003. "Competing for Securities Underwriting Mandates: Banking Relationships and Analyst Recommendations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "The Neighbor's Portfolio: Word-of-Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trade of Money Managers," NBER Working Papers 9711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ajay Subramanian & Jonathan Clarke, 2004. "Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts: Theory and Evidence," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 546, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Sorensen, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 695-704, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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