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Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias

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Author Info
Terence Lim
Abstract

This paper proposes and tests a quadratic-loss utility function for modeling corporate earnings forecasting, where financial analysts trade off bias to improve management access and forecast accuracy. Optimal forecasts with minimum expected error are optimistically biased and exhibit predictable cross-sectional variation related to analyst and company characteristics. Empirical evidence from individual analyst forecasts is consistent with the model's predictions. These results suggest that positive and predictable bias may be a rational property of optimal earnings forecasts. Prior studies using classical notions of unbiasedness may have prematurely dismissed analysts' forecasts as being irrational or inaccurate. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 369-385
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:1:p:369-385

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  4. Hart, J. van der & Zwart, G.J. de & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2005. "The Success Of Stock Selection Strategies In Emerging Markets: Is It Risk Or Behavioral Bias?," Research Paper ERS-2005-012-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Taylor, Svetlana M., 2007. "The Impact of the Cadbury Committee Recommendations on Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: UK Evidence," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2007/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Zwart, G.J. de & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2008. "The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets," Research Paper ERS-2008-007-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  17. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M, 2008. "Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition, and Equity Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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