Agreement and Accuracy in Consensus Forecasts of the UK Commercial Property Market
AbstractProperty forecasts are an integral part of the property investment process at the strategic, tactical and individual asset levels. This study investigates the nature, extent and patterns of disagreement and uncertainty in the forecasts of UK property investors and their advisors. In this paper, the Investment Property Forum's consensus forecasts from 1999--2004 are analysed. The study finds that property forecasting organizations tend to exhibit the characteristics of a consensus, potentially indicating a herding bias among forecasting organizations. Given high levels of agreement and high levels of error in the consensus forecasts, uncertainty in the property forecasts of the individual organizations seem to be primarily generated by common factors rather than by the individual forecasting organization itself. This is not a unique feature of property market forecasters as non‐property forecasters display similar patterns. A key source of uncertainty in the property market forecasts of capital and total returns seems to have been due to problems of forecasting yield shifts. The analysis suggests that there are inefficiencies in property market forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Property Research.
Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013.
"Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
- Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.