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A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

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Author Info

  • David C. Ling

    ()
    (Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611)

Abstract

We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol27n02/01.137_154.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 27 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 137-154

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:27:n:2:2005:p:137-154

Contact details of provider:
Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

Order Information:
Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Email:
Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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Cited by:
  1. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
  2. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.
  3. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2009. "IPO Pricing Strategies with Deadweight and Search Costs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 481-542.
  4. Shaun Bond & Paul Mitchell, 2010. "Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-79, July.
  5. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
  6. James Shilling & C. Sirmans & Barrett Slade, 2013. "Who Says there is a High Consensus Among Analysts when Market Uncertainty is High? Some New Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 688-718, November.

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