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Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment

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  • Jim Clayton

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  • David Ling

    ()

  • Andy Naranjo

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover, the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-008-9130-6
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 5-37

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:1:p:5-37

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Investment; Capitalization rates; Asset pricing; Investor rationality;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    2. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm274, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    5. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
    10. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    11. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    12. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Investor Rationality: An Analysis of NCREIF Commercial Property Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(4), pages 445-475.
    13. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2003. "The Dynamics of REIT Capital Flows and Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 405-434, 09.
    14. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230.
    15. Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001. "Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August.
    16. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
    17. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2006. "Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 409-433, June.
    18. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
    19. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. David C. Ling, 2005. "A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(2), pages 137-154.
    21. Sivitanidou, Rena & Sivitanides, Petros, 1999. "Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 297-322, May.
    22. James D. Shilling, 2003. "Is There a Risk Premium Puzzle in Real Estate?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 501-525, December.
    23. Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2011. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 367-381, May.
    24. Geltner, David & Mei, Jianping, 1995. "The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 119-35, September.
    25. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, 09.
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    Cited by:
    1. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    2. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
    3. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013. "Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets," MPRA Paper 46346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. S. Devaney & Oliver Holtemöller & R. Schulz, 2012. "Efficiency in the UK Commercial Property Market: A Long-run Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 15, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    5. David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
    6. Nai Jia Lee & Tien Foo Sing & Dinh Hoang Tran, 2013. "REIT Share Price and NAV Deviations: Noise or Sentiment?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 28-47.
    7. Abdullah Yavas & Yildiray Yildirim, 2011. "Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets: A Dynamic Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, January.

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