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A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand

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  • Jeff Fisher

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  • David Geltner

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  • Henry Pollakowski

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    Abstract

    This article presents a methodology for producing a quarterly transactions-based index (TBI) of property-level investment performance for U.S. institutional real estate. Indices are presented for investment periodic total returns and capital appreciation (or price-changes) for the major property types included in the NCREIF Property Index. These indices are based on transaction prices to avoid appraisal-based sources of index “smoothing” and lagging bias. In addition to producing variable-liquidity indices, this approach employs the Fisher-Gatzlaff-Geltner-Haurin (Real Estate Econ., 31: 269–303, 2003) methodology to produce separate indices tracking movements on the demand and supply sides of the investment market, including a “constant-liquidity” (demand side) index. Extensions of Bayesian noise filtering techniques developed by Gatzlaff and Geltner (Real Estate Finance, 15: 7–22, 1998) and Geltner and Goetzmann (J. Real Estate Finance Econ., 21: 5–21, 2000) are employed to allow development of quarterly frequency, market segment specific indices. The hedonic price model used in the indices is based on an extension of the Clapp and Giacotto (J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 87: 300–306, 1992) “assessed value method,” using a NCREIF-reported recent appraised value of each transacting property as the composite “hedonic” variable, thus allowing time-dummy coefficients to represent the difference each period between the (lagged) appraisals and the transaction prices. The index could also be used to produce a mass appraisal of the NCREIF property database each quarter, a byproduct of which would be the ability to provide transactions price based “automated valuation model” estimates of property value for each NCREIF property each quarter. Detailed results are available at http://web.mit.edu/cre/research/credl/tbi.html . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 5-33

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:1:p:5-33

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Transaction-based index; Commercial real estate investment performance; NCREIF database; Commercial property type returns; Constant liquidity index; Ridge regression techniques;

    References

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    1. Munneke, Henry J & Slade, Barrett A, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Sample-Selection Bias in Indices of Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 45-64, July.
    2. Carmelo Giaccotto & John Clapp, 1992. "Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24.
    3. David Geltner, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 141-166.
    4. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, 06.
    5. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-74, December.
    6. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230.
    7. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
    8. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, 06.
    9. Tsong-Yue Lai & Ko Wang, 1998. "Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 511-535.
    10. Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-45, September.
    11. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
    12. James R. Follairi, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 231-234.
    13. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
    14. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1992. "The Accuracy of Real Estate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-53, March.
    15. Yuming Fu, 2003. "Estimating the Lagging Error in Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 75-98, 03.
    16. Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
    17. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    18. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    19. David Geltner & David C. Ling, 2006. "Considerations in the Design and Construction of Investment Real Estate Research Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(4), pages 411-444.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    2. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2013. "The London Commercial Property Price Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 588-616, November.
    3. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    4. Dean Gatzlaff & Cynthia Holmes, 2013. "Estimating Transaction-Based Price Indices of Local Commercial Real Estate Markets Using Public Assessment Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 260-281, February.
    5. David Geltner & David C. Ling, 2006. "Considerations in the Design and Construction of Investment Real Estate Research Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(4), pages 411-444.
    6. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2013. "Transaction Frequency and Commercial Property," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 640-658, November.
    7. Walter Boudry & N. Coulson & Jarl Kallberg & Crocker Liu, 2013. "On Indexing Commercial Real Estate Properties and Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 617-639, November.
    8. Özyurt, Selin, 2014. "Spatial dependence in commercial property prices: micro evidence from the Netherlands," Working Paper Series 1627, European Central Bank.
    9. Joseph B. Nichols & Stephen D. Oliner & Michael R. Mulhall, 2010. "Commercial and residential land prices across the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Dirk Brounen & Melissa Porras Prado & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Real Estate in an ALM Framework: The Case of Fair Value Accounting," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 775-804, Winter.
    11. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
    12. David Downs & Z. Güner, 2013. "Commercial Real Estate, Information Production and Market Activity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 282-298, February.
    13. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox, 2014. "Sunk Costs and the Measurement of Commercial Property Depreciation," Discussion Papers 2014-28, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    14. David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich, 2012. "Metropolitan Land Values and Housing Productivity," NBER Working Papers 18110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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